Climate Change Impacts
Washington’s diverse agricultural landscape is characterized by a combination of high-value irrigated horticultural crops (orchards, vineyards, and row-crop vegetable systems), dryland cereal systems, and forage / livestock / rangeland production systems -- each of which have developed and evolved within well-defined agri-climatic niches. Slight changes in temperature, precipitation / evapotranspiration, humidity from historical norms could increase or decrease pest pressure and potentially require shifts in production systems to reduce agronomic and economic risks for producers. Because agriculture is widely exposed to these variables, the potential exists for perturbations in response to these changes in the next few decades and beyond.
The availability and capture of solar radiation, water, and nutrients are basic factors for plant growth and survival. Temperature plays an important role in general biological activity, defining in the case of plants the length of the available season suitable for growth, the speed of phenological development, the incidence of heat or freezing stresses, and the level of enzymatic activity associated with photosynthesis and respiration. Plant growth and development are reduced or halted at low temperatures, cells are damaged by freezing temperatures, and high temperatures can be devastating during flowering and initial stages of yield formation. The interaction of these factors will determine the impact on crop productivity, management, and economics of agriculture under climate change.
All crops and associated pests respond to climatic shifts. While we can currently predict some crop and pest responses to climate change, the complexity of interactions between climate-driven variables makes accurate prediction difficult. We need to better understand the complicated response of crops and pests under conditions of elevated CO2 and temperature to adequately model crop growth and yield in the presence of a complex of pests. Evaluating pest management tactics under changed climate conditions would enable identification of effective management strategies for future cropping systems. Predicting new weed, disease and insect species that may become important with changing climate will be required to manage these pests economically.
A generalized assessment of the impact of climate change on key facets of Washington state’s agricultural sector was conducted by an interdisciplinary team of WSU and USDA scientists. These key facets include climate change effects on tree fruits, potatoes, grapes, dryland cropping systems, weeds, diseases, insect pests and production economics. Computer simulation, expert opinions, and experience from areas of the world with similar conditions to those predicted for climate change in the state were utilized to assess cropping system impacts from projected changes in a) temperature, b) growing season length, c) precipitation patterns, d) water supply and demand, e) atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, f) potential growth rate, and g) incidence of weeds, pests, and diseases. Based on this information, preparation / adaptation strategies were recommended. These impacts include changes in pesticide use, expected yields, variability of yields, and entire shifts in crop production.
Resources:
The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group led the Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment (WACCIA) which was funded by the state legislature through HB 1303. Full Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Project Website
Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Report Chapter 5: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture (2009). Claudio O. Stöckle, Roger L. Nelson, Stewart Higgins, Jay Brunner, Gary Grove, Rick Boydston, Mathew Whiting, and Chad Kruger.
Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Conference Proceedings
Agenda with links to agriculture sector breakout presentations
University of Washington Climate Impacts Group
State of Washington Climate Change Preparation and Adaptation Working Group Report (2007) (Agriculture Workgroup pp. 23 - 37).
Resources
CSANR Climate Friendly Farming Team Wins National Innovation Award
Proceedings for the Beyond Waste Workshop (2009)
Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Report Chapter 5: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture (2009)
Washington State Agricultural Sector Carbon Market Workgroup (ASCMW): Recommendations for the Development of Agricultural Sector Carbon Offsets in Washington State (2008)
Heading using the h3 tag
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