David Gustafson

What Do Hurricanes and Soil Carbon Have in Common? The Wisdom of a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” So goes an apparently ancient Danish aphorism also mistakenly credited to a wide range of humorists, from Yogi Berra to Mark Twain – and even to a Nobel Laureate, Niels Bohr. Whatever its origins, it is undeniably true. I will discuss an approach for hedging our bets against an uncertain future. I will start with an example where this is already being done, and then we can tackle soil carbon.

Computer image from model of hurricane paths

The ‘Carbon Market Bazaar’: Future Windfall for Producers or Just Hot Air?

I’m a fan of action movies, where a Middle Eastern bazaar is a popular place for high-speed chases. Even without the careening bullets and motorcycles, there are hints of danger and mystery amidst the clamor and unknown languages filling the air. You barter over the selling price of exotic objects that cannot be found anywhere else.

A long corridor with cathedral ceiling, vendors selling carpets and other merchandise.