Assessing Landscape Vulnerability to Wildfire

This 2021 FireEarth science brief presents a conceptual framework for assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in order to inform adaptive management. Drawing on ecological vulnerability theory, the framework identifies three primary components: exposure (the occurrence and extent of wildfire), sensitivity (the degree to which wildfire impacts ecosystem goods and services), and resilience (the ability of a system to recover or maintain function after fire). The brief emphasizes the value of combining retrospective assessments—analyzing past fires and impacts—with predictive assessments that use models and projections to evaluate future risk. By integrating these components, land managers can better identify thresholds, anticipate likely impacts, and implement proactive management actions that enhance fire resilience. The framework supports development of adaptive management plans that remain flexible in the face of climate variability and increasing wildfire activity across western landscapes.

The production of this science brief was supported by the National Science Foundation through award DMS-1520873.