Changes in the Climate-Fire Relationship: Patterns Locally and Around the Globe

This FireEarth science brief synthesizes research examining how climate variability and anthropogenic climate change influence wildfire activity across global and regional scales. Drawing on three foundational studies led by University of Idaho researchers, the brief evaluates relationships between fuel aridity, precipitation patterns, and burn severity. Global analyses found climate variability explains roughly one-third of interannual burned-area variation, with fuel aridity strongly associated with forested ecoregions. Western U.S. analyses show increasing fuel aridity is linked to greater burn severity and annual area burned. Future projections using 17 global climate models indicate fire weather conditions exceeding natural variability are already emerging in parts of the world and are expected to intensify, particularly if global mean temperatures exceed 2–3°C above preindustrial levels. The brief concludes that adapting to increased fire risk will require coordinated management and policy responses.

The production of this science brief was supported by the National Science Foundation through award DMS-1520873. The research described in this brief may have had other funding sources, which are acknowledged in the appropriate foundational publications.