Climate Change and Fire Suppression: Drivers of Fire Regimes at Actionable Scales

This 2021 FireEarth science brief summarizes research examining how climate change and fire suppression interact to shape wildfire regimes at watershed-relevant scales. Using a novel modeling framework, researchers simulated wildfire frequency, magnitude, and risk from 1980–2017 in two central Idaho watersheds: Johnson Creek and Trail Creek. The study found that climate change increased burn probability and fire size in more mesic, fuel-limited systems such as Johnson Creek, while in more arid systems like Trail Creek, climate-driven drought stress reduced fuel loads and decreased burned area. Fire suppression effects also varied by site aridity, sometimes decreasing burn probability due to canopy shading and moisture retention, and other times having minimal influence. The findings highlight that wildfire drivers vary spatially within watersheds and along soil moisture gradients, underscoring the need for spatially explicit, adaptive fuel management strategies that account for both climate trends and local environmental conditions.

Production of this science brief was supported by the National Science Foundation through award DMS-1520873.