Social Vulnerability to Wildfire

This 2021 FireEarth science brief summarizes research examining social vulnerability to wildfire in McCall, Idaho, and Flathead County, Montana. Using survey data, wildfire simulation models, and geospatial parcel information, researchers evaluated exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity through calculations of expected residential losses from wildfire (E(RLW)). The findings indicate that parcel characteristics—such as size, value, and development timing—are more predictive of wildfire exposure and overall risk than demographic traits alone. In some cases, higher-income households and newer properties were associated with increased sensitivity to wildfire losses. Residents’ perceptions of wildfire risk frequently diverged from modeled risk estimates, suggesting important communication gaps. The research also identified differences in fuel reduction behavior among full-time and part-time residents, age groups, and property owners. The brief highlights the need for targeted risk communication and mitigation strategies that account for diverse residency patterns, land ownership, and risk perceptions.

Production of this science brief was supported by the National Science Foundation through award DMS-1520873.