Supply Chains for Processed Potato and Tomato Products in the United States Will Have Enhanced Resilience with Planting Adaptation Strategies

This study applies an integrated framework combining climate, crop, economic, and life cycle assessment models to evaluate the resilience of U.S. supply chains for processed potato and tomato products, specifically French fries and pasta sauce. The analysis finds that planting adaptation strategies that shift production to avoid higher temperatures can maintain or enhance supply chain resilience under climate change. Projected yield increases reduce land and water footprints over time, while greenhouse gas emissions can be further mitigated through waste reduction and processing improvements. The study demonstrates how coordinated adaptation across production regions and supply chains can support both climate mitigation and food system stability. The integrated modeling approach provides a scalable framework that can be applied to other crops, geographies, and consumer scenarios to inform climate-smart supply chain decision-making.