Assessment of seasonal forecast accuracy for fertilizer and drought management decisions in the Pacific Northwest.
This research highlight evaluates the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for informing agricultural decisions in the Pacific Northwest. The study assessed forecast skill using the Heidke Skill Score (HSS), focusing on two decisions with distinct timelines: fall fertilizer application based on expected winter temperatures and drought response actions such as water leasing.
Results indicate positive forecast skill across much of the region for up to three months in advance for winter temperature conditions. Forecasts were particularly effective in identifying unusually warm winters, which carry greater economic risk due to potential fertilizer loss. Similarly, drought forecasts based on regional water supply demonstrated positive skill up to two months before the irrigation season, supporting earlier and more informed drought planning decisions. These findings suggest that tailored seasonal forecasts can provide actionable guidance when aligned with specific management decisions and timelines.
This work was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture under project #1016467.
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Authors
Kondal, A., Liu, M., Hegewisch, K., Abatzoglou, J., Adam, J., Nijssen, B., and Rajagopalan, K.
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Suggested Citation
Kondal, A., Liu, M., Hegewisch, K., Abatzoglou, J., Adam, J., Nijssen, B., Rajagopalan, K. What Is the Accuracy of Seasonal Forecasts for Informing Agricultural Decisions? Technology for Trade Research Highlight. Washington State University.
Year Published
2024
Areas of Focus
Agricultural Technology, Climate & Environment, and Water Resources & Policy
Topics
Climate Change, Energy, Production Systems, and Water Resources
