Strong ENSO signals in select basins increase seasonal drought forecast accuracy and economic value.
This research highlight evaluates whether strong El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) signals improve the accuracy and economic value of seasonal drought forecasts in the Pacific Northwest. ENSO phases influence winter temperature and precipitation patterns, but mountainous terrain creates localized variability in water availability impacts across the region.
The analysis finds that strong ENSO signals occur on the windward slopes of the Olympics, Cascades, Bitterroots-Rockies, and in the Snake Headwater region. These areas also experience relatively frequent drought and demonstrate higher forecast skill, particularly in correctly identifying drought years. Higher true positive rates and lower total forecast error translate into greater economic value for water management decisions, especially for junior water rights holders making leasing decisions.
In contrast, agricultural areas such as the Yakima Basin and Columbia Basin Project exhibit weaker ENSO influence and therefore lower forecast value. Results indicate that in regions with strong ENSO signals, seasonal forecasts provide meaningful decision support for agricultural water management.
This work was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, project #1016467.
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Authors
Xu, C., Adam, J., Brady, M., Liu, M., Abatzoglou, J., and Rajagopalan, K.
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Suggested Citation
Xu, C., Adam, J., Brady, M., Liu, M., Abatzoglou, J., Rajagopalan, K. (2024). Do Strong El Niño/La Niña Signals Translate to Higher Accuracy and Value of Seasonal Forecasts? Technology for Trade Research Highlight. Washington State University.
Year Published
2024
Areas of Focus
Agricultural Technology, Climate & Environment, and Water Resources & Policy
Topics
Climate Change, Natural Resources, Production Systems, and Water Resources
