Washington’s agricultural landscape is characterized by a broad diversity of crop
production systems — each of which have emerged within and adapted to well-defined agri-climatic niches in different parts of the state. Small changes in climatic trends or patterns (e.g. temperature, precipitation, extreme events, etc.) could increase climate-related production risks, necessitate shifts in production systems or management practices, and change pest pressures.
The availability and capture of solar radiation, water, and nutrients are basic factors for plant growth and survival. Temperature plays an important role in general biological activity, defining the length of the growing season, plant phenological development, the incidence of heat or freezing stresses, and other factors that affect crop productivity and quality. Plant growth and development are reduced or halted at low temperatures, cells are damaged by freezing temperatures, and high temperatures can be devastating during flowering and initial stages of yield formation. The interaction of these factors will determine the impact on crop productivity, management, and economics of agriculture under climate change. All crops and associated pests respond to climatic shifts. While we can currently project
some crop and pest responses to climate change, the complexity of interactions between climate-driven variables makes accurate prediction
difficult. We are seeking to better understand the complicated response of crops and pests under conditions of elevated CO2 and temperature to adequately assess the influence of climate change on crop production and farm management variables.
CSANR and partners have undertaken several projects in the past decade to shape our understanding of the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the region to inform regional investments in agricultural adaptation to climate change. These projects include an initial “triage” assessment of agricultural vulnerability (Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Project), a broadened evaluation of crop vulnerability to climate change and irrigation (Columbia River Supply and Demand Forecast) and ongoing projects assessing wheat production (REACCH), expanded regional forecasting (BioEarth) and specific water-shed level considerations (WISDM).
Impacts of near-term climate change on irrigation demands and drop yields in the Columbia River Basin
Rajagopalan, K., K.J. Chinnayakanahalli, C.O. Stockle, R.L. Nelson, C.E. Kruger, M.P. Brady, K. Malek, S. Dinesh, M.E. Barber, A.F. Hamlet, G.G. Yorgey, and J.C. Adam. 2018. Water Resources Research.
Estimating climate change effects on grazing management and beef cattle production in the Pacific Northwest
JS Neibergs, TD Hudson, CE Kruger, K Hamel-Rieken. 2018. Climatic Change, 5-17.
Integrating historic agronomic and policy lessons with new technologies to drive farmer decisions for farm and climate: The case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.
Pan, W., W. Schillinger, F. Young, E. Kirby, G. Yorgey, K. Borrelli, E. Brooks, V. McCracken, T. Maaz, S. Machado, I. Madsen, J. Johnson-Maynard, L. Port, K. Painter, D. Huggins, A. Esser, H. Collins, C. Stockle, and S. Eigenbrode. 2017. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 5:76. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00076
Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Offset Quantification Protocols for Nitrogen Management in Dryland Wheat Cropping Systems of the Pacific Northwest
TT Brown, CM Lee, CE Kruger, JP Reganold, DR Huggins. 2017. Frontiers in Environmental Science 5, 72.
Design and Use of Representative Agricultural Pathways for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change in US Pacific Northwest Cereal-Based Systems
John M Antle, Jianhong E Mu, Hongliang Zhang, Susan M Capalbo, Penelope L Diebel, Sanford D Eigenbrode, Chad E Kruger, Claudio O Stöckle, JD Wulfhorst, and John T Abatzoglou. 2017. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 5, 99.
Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities
Georgine Yorgey, Sonia A. Hall, Elizabeth Allen, Elizabeth Whitefield, Nichole Embertson, Vincent P. Jones, Kirti Rajagopalan, Brooke R Saari, Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, Bea Van Horne, John Abatzoglou, Harold P. Collins, Laurie Houston, Timothy W Ewing, and Chad E. Kruger, Front. Environ. Sci., 31 August 2017
Allen, Kruger, C.E., Abatzoglou, J., K. Rajagopalan and E.M. Kirby. 2017. Chapter 1 In Yorgey, G. and C. Kruger, eds. Advances in Dryland Production Systems in the Pacific Northwest. Washington State University Extension, Pullman, WA.
Farm Policies and the Role for Decision Support Tools
Houston, L., C. Seavert, S. Capalbo, J. Antle. 2017. Chapter 12 In Yorgey, G. and C. Kruger, eds. Advances in Dryland Production Systems in the Pacific Northwest. Washington State University Extension, Pullman, WA.
Advances in Dryland Farming in the Inland Pacific Northwest
Georgine Yorgey and Chad Kruger, Eds. 2017. Washington State University Extension. Pullman, WA.
BioEarth Agricultural Adaptation Scenarios Stakeholder Workshop Summary Report
Allen, E., C.E. Kruger, K. Rajagopalan, M. Brady, K. Malek, S. Richey & J.C. Adam. (2017). Washington State University.
Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Research and Extension Priorities in the Northwest
Yorgey, Georgine; Kruger, Chad; Saari, Brooke; Hall, Sonia A.; Whitefield, Elizabeth; Embertson, Nichole; Jones, Vincent P. Rajagopalan, Kirti; Allen, Elizabeth; Roesch-McNally, Gabrielle; Van Horne, Beatrice; Abatzoglou, John; Collins, Hal; Houston, Laurie; Seavert, Clarke; Ewing Timothy. (2017). Technical Publication from the Agriculture in a Changing Climate Workshop, held in Kennewick, WA, March 9-11, 2016. Published February 28, 2017.
Grazed cover cropping: Drew Leitch (Farmer to Farmer Case Study Videos)
Yorgey, G.G., K. Borrelli, and K. Painter. 2017. Produced by Darrell Kilgore and WSU CAHNRS Communications. Pullman, WA.
Stripper Header and Direct Seeding: Ron and Andy Juris (Farmer to Farmer Case Study Series)
Yorgey, G.G., K. Borrelli, K.M. Painter, and H. Davis. 2017. Pacific Northwest Extension Publication 694, Pullman, WA.
Technical Supplement for the Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast
Adam, J.C., M. Barik, J. Yoder, M.P. Brady, D. Haller, M.E. Barber, Hall, S.A., C.E. Kruger, G.G. Yorgey, M. Downes, C.O. Stockle, B. Aryal, T. Carlson, G. Damiano, S. Dhungel, C. Einberger, K. Hamel-Reiken, M. Liu, K. Malek, S. McClure, R. Nelson, M. O’Brien, J. Padowski, K. Rajagopalan, Z. Rakib, B. Rushi, W. Valdez. 2017. Publication No. 16-12-008. Washington Department of Ecology, Olympia, WA. 216 pp.
Strip tillage of vegetables with livestock integration: Eric Williamson (Farmer to Farmer Case Study Videos).
Yorgey, G.G., K. Borrelli, A. McGuire, and K. Painter. 2017. Produced by Darrell Kilgore and CAHNRS Communications. Pullman, WA.
Climate science information needs among natural resource decision-makers in the Northwestern U.S.
Allen, E., J. Stephens. G.G. Yorgey, C.E. Kruger, S.M. Ahamed, and J.C. Adam. 2017. Climate Services, 5, 11-22.
Modeling environmental change: A guide to understanding model results that explore the impacts of climate change on regional environmental systems
Allen, E., G. Yorgey, K. Rajagopalan, and C. Kruger. 2015. WSU Extension Fact Sheet FS159E.
Increasing resilience among cereal-based farmers in the Inland Pacific Northwest – Farmer to Farmer Case Studies
Yorgey, Georgine, Kathleen Painter, Hilary Davis, Kristy Borrelli, Sylvia Kantor, Leigh Bernacchi, R. Dennis Roe, Chad Kruger 2014. Video and print case studies part of REACCH PNA project. The goal of these case studies to inspire others to take management risks on their farms that can improve their overall sustainability and resiliency into the future. Future case studies are in progress and will focus on farmers who manage water in irrigated systems, tillage practices and residue management in unique ways.
BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management
Adam, J. C., J. C. Stephens, S. H. Chung, M. P. Brady, R. D. Evans, C. E. Kruger, B. K. Lamb, M. Liu, C. O. Stöckle, J. K. Vaughan, K. Rajagopalan, J. A. Harrison, C. L. Tague, A. Kalyanaraman, Y. Chen, A. Guenther, F. Leung, L. R. Leung, A. B. Perleberg, J. Yoder, E. Allen, S. Anderson, B. Chandrasekharan, K. Malek, T. Mullis, C. Miller, T. Nergui, J. Poinsatte, J. Reyes, J. Zhu, J. S. Choate, X. Jiang, R. Nelson, J. Yoon, G. G. Yorgey, K. Johnson, K. J. Chinnayakanahalli, A. F. Hamlet, B. Nijssen, and V. Walden. Climatic Change, 2014. (DOI) 10.1007/s10584-014-1115-2
Agriculture – Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Sanford D. Eigenbrode, Susan M. Capalbo, Laurie L. Houston, Jodi Johnson-Maynard, Chad Kruger, & Beau Olen. Chapter 6 in, Dalton, M.M., P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover [Eds.]. 2013. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Washington, D.C. Island Press.
Critical Research Needs for Successful Food Systems Adaptation to Climate Change
What do we currently know about the impacts of climate change on Pacific Northwest cropland agriculture?
2011 Columbia River Basin Long Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast Technical Report
2012. Ecology Publication 12-12-001. The technical report is available for download by section, including appendices, at the bottom of the linked page.
2011 Columbia River Basin Long Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast Legislative Report
2012. Ecology Publication 11-12-011.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture
Stockle, C.O., Nelson, R.L., Higgins, S., Brunner, J.F., Grove, G.G., Boydston, R.A., Whiting, M.D., & Kruger, C.E. (2010). Climatic Change 102 (1-2), 77-102.
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Columbia River Basin Agriculture through Integrated Crop Systems, Hydrologic, and Water Management Modeling
Rajagopalan, K., K. Chinnayakanahalli, J.C. Adam, C.S. Stockle, R. Nelson, M. Brady, M.E. Barber, S. Dinesh, K. Malek, G. Yorgey, C. Kruger, T. Marsh, and J. Yoder, 2011. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 6.
WRDC Rural Connections Newsletter: Climate Change issue
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture
Stockle, C.O., et. al. 2009. Chapter 5 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington’s Future in a Changing Climate. A report from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.
The Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Conference Proceedings
Conference agenda includes links to agriculture sector breakout group presentations.