The availability and capture of solar radiation, water, and nutrients are basic factors for plant growth and survival. Temperature plays an important role in general biological activity, defining the length of the growing season, plant phenological development, the incidence of heat or freezing stresses, and other factors that affect crop productivity and quality. Plant growth and development are reduced or halted at low temperatures, cells are damaged by freezing temperatures, and high temperatures can be devastating during flowering and initial stages of yield formation. The interaction of these factors will determine the impact on crop productivity, management, and economics of agriculture under climate change. All crops and associated pests respond to climatic shifts. While we can currently project some crop and pest responses to climate change, the complexity of interactions between climate-driven variables makes accurate prediction difficult. We are seeking to better understand the complicated response of crops and pests under conditions of elevated CO2 and temperature to adequately assess the influence of climate change on crop production and farm management variables.
CSANR and partners have undertaken several projects in the past decade to shape our understanding of the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the region to inform regional investments in agricultural adaptation to climate change. These projects include an initial “triage” assessment of agricultural vulnerability (Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Project), a broadened evaluation of crop vulnerability to climate change and irrigation (Columbia River Supply and Demand Forecast) and ongoing projects assessing wheat production (REACCH), expanded regional forecasting (BioEarth) and specific water-shed level considerations (WISDM).
Featured Publications
Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation
Chaudhary, S., Rajagopalan, K., Kruger, C.E., Brady, M.P., Fraisse, C.W., Gustafson, D.I., Hall, S.A., Hoogenboom, G., Melnick, R., Reyes, J., Stockle, C.O., Sulser, T.B. 2023. Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation. Scientific Reports 13, 9317. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35887-x
Grounding United States policies and programs in soil carbon science: strengths, limitations, and opportunities
Gelardi, D., Rath, D. & Kruger, C.E. 2023. Grounding United States policies and programs in soil carbon science: strengths, limitations, and opportunities. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 7. 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1188133.
Evaluating Compost Application for Soil Carbon Sequestration on Agricultural Land and Compost Buy-Back Programs in Washington State
Ball, K.R., M.P. Brady, I.C. Burke, D.P. Collins, K.M. Hills, C.E. Kruger, B. Stone, E.L. Taylor, and G.G. Yorgey. Evaluating Compost Application for Soil Carbon Sequestration on Agricultural Land and Compost Buy-Back Programs in Washington State. Report to the Washington State Legislature. Center for Sustaining Agriculture & Natural Resources, Washington State University, Wenatchee, WA
Disturbance Refugia: Thinking Broadly About Resilience to Interacting Disturbances
Saari, B. 2022. Disturbance Refugia: Thinking Broadly About Resilience to Interacting Disturbances. FireEarth Science Brief No. 15. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief15/.
Fire Refugia: Islands of Possibilities
Saari, B. 2022. Fire Refugia: Islands of Possibilities. FireEarth Science Brief No. 14. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief14/.
Changes in the Climate-Fire Relationship: Patterns Locally and Around the Globe
Kirkpatrick, A.W. 2021. Changes in the Climate-Fire Relationship: Patterns Locally and Around the Globe. FireEarth Science Brief No. 10. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief10/.
The Effects of Fire Intensity on Trees and Productivity
Kirkpatrick, A.W. 2021. The Effects of Fire Intensity on Trees and Productivity. FireEarth Science Brief No. 11. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief11/.
Fire Intensity Impacts on Net Primary Productivity
Kirkpatrick, A.W. 2021. Fire Intensity Impacts on Net Primary Productivity. FireEarth Science Brief No. 06. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief06/.
Private-citizen Involvement in Fire Management: A Case Study of the Black Canyon Rangeland Fire Protection Association
Whittemore, A. 2021. Private-citizen Involvement in Fire Management: A Case Study of the Black Canyon Rangeland Fire Protection Association. FireEarth Science Brief No. 05. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief05/.
Assessing Landscape Vulnerability to Wildfire
Saari, B. and Hall, S.A. 2021. Assessing Landscape Vulnerability to Wildfire. FireEarth Science Brief No. 04. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief04/.
Climate Change and Fire Suppression: Drivers of Fire Regimes at Actionable Scales
Kirkpatrick, A.W. 2021. Climate Change and Fire Suppression: Drivers of Fire Regimes at Actionable Scales. FireEarth Science Brief No. 01. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University. csanr.wsu.edu/publications/fireearth-brief01/.
Building a Tradition of Adaptive Rangeland Management: Jack Southworth (Rancher-to-Rancher Case Study series)
Reeves, M.C., Hudson, T.D., Neibergs, J.S., Hall, S.A., Yorgey, G.G. 2019. Building a Tradition of Adaptive Rangeland Management: Jack Southworth (Rancher-to-Rancher Case Study series)
Food-Energy-Water: Innovations in Storage for Resilience in the Columbia River Basin
Hall, S.A., Yorgey, G.G., Padowski, J.C., Adam, J.C. 2019. Progress Report for the Columbia River FEW Project. Available online at www.fewstorage.wsu.edu
Farmer-to-Farmer & Rancher-to-Rancher Case Studies Series
Authors include: Yorgey, G., Borrelli, K., Painter, K., Davis, H., Hall, S., Hudson, T., Neibergs, S., Reeves, M., Kruger, C., McGuire A., Finkelnburg, D., Roe, D., Brooks, E., and Kantor, S. 2016-2019. PNW Extension Publications and videos. These series explore strategies that innovative regional farmers and ranchers are using that enhance resilience to climate change and other future challenges. Case studies highlight producers in dryland and irrigated annual cropping, rangeland, and dairy production systems. Practices relate to soil health, diversification, responsive management, and many others.
Farmers’ Trust in Sources of Production and Climate Information and Their Use of Technology
Borrelli, K. A., G. E. Roesch-McNally, J. D. Wulfhorst, S. D. Eigenbrode, G. G. Yorgey, C. E. Kruger, L. L. Houston, L. A. Bernacchi, R. L. Mahler. 2018. Journal of Extension.
Impacts of near-term climate change on irrigation demands and crop yields in the Columbia River Basin
Rajagopalan, K., K.J. Chinnayakanahalli, C.O. Stockle, R.L. Nelson, C.E. Kruger, M.P. Brady, K. Malek, S. Dinesh, M.E. Barber, A.F. Hamlet, G.G. Yorgey, and J.C. Adam. 2018. Water Resources Research.
Estimating climate change effects on grazing management and beef cattle production in the Pacific Northwest
JS Neibergs, TD Hudson, CE Kruger, K Hamel-Rieken. 2018. Climatic Change, 5-17.
Integrating historic agronomic and policy lessons with new technologies to drive farmer decisions for farm and climate: The case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.
Pan, W., W. Schillinger, F. Young, E. Kirby, G. Yorgey, K. Borrelli, E. Brooks, V. McCracken, T. Maaz, S. Machado, I. Madsen, J. Johnson-Maynard, L. Port, K. Painter, D. Huggins, A. Esser, H. Collins, C. Stockle, and S. Eigenbrode. 2017. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 5:76. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00076
Design and Use of Representative Agricultural Pathways for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change in US Pacific Northwest Cereal-Based Systems
John M Antle, Jianhong E Mu, Hongliang Zhang, Susan M Capalbo, Penelope L Diebel, Sanford D Eigenbrode, Chad E Kruger, Claudio O Stöckle, JD Wulfhorst, and John T Abatzoglou. 2017. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 5, 99.
Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities
Georgine Yorgey, Sonia A. Hall, Elizabeth Allen, Elizabeth Whitefield, Nichole Embertson, Vincent P. Jones, Kirti Rajagopalan, Brooke R Saari, Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, Bea Van Horne, John Abatzoglou, Harold P. Collins, Laurie Houston, Timothy W Ewing, and Chad E. Kruger, Front. Environ. Sci., 31 August 2017
Climate Considerations
Allen, Kruger, C.E., Abatzoglou, J., K. Rajagopalan and E.M. Kirby. 2017. Chapter 1 In Yorgey, G. and C. Kruger, eds. Advances in Dryland Production Systems in the Pacific Northwest. Washington State University Extension, Pullman, WA.
Farm Policies and the Role for Decision Support Tools
Houston, L., C. Seavert, S. Capalbo, J. Antle. 2017. Chapter 12 In Yorgey, G. and C. Kruger, eds. Advances in Dryland Production Systems in the Pacific Northwest. Washington State University Extension, Pullman, WA.
Advances in Dryland Farming in the Inland Pacific Northwest
Georgine Yorgey and Chad Kruger, Eds. 2017. Washington State University Extension. Pullman, WA.
BioEarth Agricultural Adaptation Scenarios Stakeholder Workshop Summary Report
Allen, E., C.E. Kruger, K. Rajagopalan, M. Brady, K. Malek, S. Richey & J.C. Adam. (2017). Washington State University.
Technical Supplement for the Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast
Adam, J.C., M. Barik, J. Yoder, M.P. Brady, D. Haller, M.E. Barber, Hall, S.A., C.E. Kruger, G.G. Yorgey, M. Downes, C.O. Stockle, B. Aryal, T. Carlson, G. Damiano, S. Dhungel, C. Einberger, K. Hamel-Reiken, M. Liu, K. Malek, S. McClure, R. Nelson, M. O’Brien, J. Padowski, K. Rajagopalan, Z. Rakib, B. Rushi, W. Valdez. 2017. Publication No. 16-12-008. Washington Department of Ecology, Olympia, WA. 216 pp.
Climate science information needs among natural resource decision-makers in the Northwestern U.S.
Allen, E., J. Stephens. G.G. Yorgey, C.E. Kruger, S.M. Ahamed, and J.C. Adam. 2017. Climate Services, 5, 11-22.
2016 Washington State Legislative Report, Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast
Hall, S.A., J.C. Adam, M. Barik, J. Yoder, M.P. Brady, D. Haller, M.E. Barber, C.E. Kruger, G.G. Yorgey, M. Downes, C.O. Stockle, B. Aryal, T. Carlson, G. Damiano, S. Dhungel, C. Einberger, K. Hamel-Reiken, M. Liu, K. Malek, S. McClure, R. Nelson, M. O’Brien, J. Padowski, K. Rajagopalan, Z. Rakib, B. Rushi, W. Valdez. 2016. Publication No. 16-12-001. Washington Department of Ecology, Olympia, WA. 216 pp.
Modeling environmental change: A guide to understanding model results that explore the impacts of climate change on regional environmental systems
Allen, E., G. Yorgey, K. Rajagopalan, and C. Kruger. 2015. WSU Extension Fact Sheet FS159E.
BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management
Adam, J. C., J. C. Stephens, S. H. Chung, M. P. Brady, R. D. Evans, C. E. Kruger, B. K. Lamb, M. Liu, C. O. Stöckle, J. K. Vaughan, K. Rajagopalan, J. A. Harrison, C. L. Tague, A. Kalyanaraman, Y. Chen, A. Guenther, F. Leung, L. R. Leung, A. B. Perleberg, J. Yoder, E. Allen, S. Anderson, B. Chandrasekharan, K. Malek, T. Mullis, C. Miller, T. Nergui, J. Poinsatte, J. Reyes, J. Zhu, J. S. Choate, X. Jiang, R. Nelson, J. Yoon, G. G. Yorgey, K. Johnson, K. J. Chinnayakanahalli, A. F. Hamlet, B. Nijssen, and V. Walden. Climatic Change, 2014. (DOI) 10.1007/s10584-014-1115-2
Agriculture Climate Network
The AgClimate Network is a web-based hub for communication between regional scientists and stakeholders about climate change and agricultural and natural resources topics. A consortium of institutions including Oregon State University, University of Idaho, and Washington State University, and the United States Department of Agriculture Northwest Climate Hub support individuals who contribute content to this site and share articles and analyses.
Agriculture – Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Sanford D. Eigenbrode, Susan M. Capalbo, Laurie L. Houston, Jodi Johnson-Maynard, Chad Kruger, & Beau Olen. Chapter 6 in, Dalton, M.M., P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover [Eds.]. 2013. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Washington, D.C. Island Press.
Critical Research Needs for Successful Food Systems Adaptation to Climate Change
Miller, M., M. Anderson, C. Francis, C. Kruger, C. Barford, J. Park, and B. McCown. 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2013.034.016 Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development.
2011 Columbia River Basin Long Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast Technical Report
2012. Ecology Publication 12-12-001.
2011 Columbia River Basin Long Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast Legislative Report
2012. Ecology Publication 11-12-011.
Additional Publications
BioEarth – What Models Can Tell Us about how Climate Change Will Affect Regional Agriculture
Rajagopalan, K., Brady. M. 2017. BioEarth – What Models Can Tell Us about how Climate Change Will Affect Regional Agriculture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOGr0maqfqM
Supply chains for processed potato and tomato products in the United States will have enhanced resilience with planting adaptation strategies
D. Gustafson, S. Asseng, J. Kruse, G. Thoma, K. Guan, G. Hoogenboom, M. Matlock, M. Mclean, R. Parajuli, K. Rajagopalan, C. Stöckle, T. Sulser, L. Tarar, K. Wiebe, C. Fraisse, C. Gimenez, W. Intarapapong, T. Karimi, C. Kruger, Y. Li, E. Marshall, R. Nelson, A. Pronk, R. Raymundo, A. Riddle, M. Rosenbohm, D. Sonke, F. van Evert, G. Wu, L. Xiao, C. Zhao. 2021. Supply chains for processed potato and tomato products in the United States will have enhanced resilience with planting adaptation strategies. Nature Food 2:11, 862-872.
WRDC Rural Connections Newsletter: Climate Change issue
Western Rural Development Center’s Rural Connections Newsletter Climate Change issue June 2011 contains three articles written by CSANR faculty and staff members. View the entire issue here and look for these titles: Anaerobic Digestion in the Pacific Northwest; Climate Change and Family Forest Landowners in the Pacific Northwest: Attitudes & Understanding; Climate Change and Agriculture in the Pacific Northwest.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture
Stockle, C.O., Nelson, R.L., Higgins, S., Brunner, J.F., Grove, G.G., Boydston, R.A., Whiting, M.D., & Kruger, C.E. (2010). Climatic Change 102 (1-2), 77-102.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture
Stockle, C.O., et. al. 2009. Chapter 5 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington’s Future in a Changing Climate. A report from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.
The Washington Climate Change Impact Assessment Conference Proceedings
Conference agenda includes links to agriculture sector breakout group presentations.
External Links